Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Javonte Williams from EV Insight

Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards

Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-114).

Pros

This game’s spread suggests a running game script for the Broncos, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The predictive model expects the Denver Broncos as the 3rd-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 49.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
In this week’s contest, Javonte Williams is predicted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 88th percentile when it comes to RBs with 16.0 rush attempts.
Javonte Williams has received 54.3% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
Javonte Williams has generated 51.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in football when it comes to running backs (80th percentile).

Cons

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see only 124.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.
The Denver Broncos have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
The New England Patriots defense owns the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing just 3.49 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
The Patriots safeties profile as the best group of safeties in football this year with their run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards