Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Vikings vs. Lions
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (+106/-137).
The public has bet the OVER up to 89.5 (+106) after it opened @ 80.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings may pass less in this week’s game (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling out backup QB Nick Mullens.
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 64.4% of their plays: the highest rate among all teams this week.
- The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- This year, the anemic Lions defense has allowed a staggering 165.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 9th-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- Justin Jefferson’s ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 72.0% to 68.0%.
- The Lions pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.03 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
109
Receiving Yards
109
Receiving Yards
