Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chiefs vs. Bills
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-115) after it opened @ 70.5 (-110).
Pros
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are predicted by the projections to call 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-most on the slate this week.
- This week, Travis Kelce is expected by the model to rank in the 100th percentile among tight ends with 9.8 targets.
- Travis Kelce has been an integral part of his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 24.0% this year, which ranks him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Travis Kelce checks in as one of the best tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 75.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 100th percentile.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
- When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Buffalo’s safety corps has been terrific this year, profiling as the 10th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
