Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Vikings vs. Patriots
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 21.5 (-110) after it opened @ 22.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to notch 3.8 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile among TEs.
- Hunter Henry’s receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 69.6% to 73.3%.
- The Minnesota Vikings defense has conceded the 7th-most receiving yards per game in football (54.0) versus TEs this year.
Cons
- The New England Patriots have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.
- Hunter Henry has totaled far fewer air yards this year (23.0 per game) than he did last year (46.0 per game).
- Hunter Henry’s 23.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 35.1.
- Hunter Henry has put up quite a few less receiving yards per game (26.0) this season than he did last season (37.0).
- The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
