Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Cardinals vs. Rams
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 235.5 (-115) after it opened @ 236.5 (-115).
Pros
- The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- Matthew Stafford has attempted 36.4 passes per game this year, grading out in the 79th percentile when it comes to QBs.
- This year, the weak Arizona Cardinals defense has allowed a monstrous 73.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 9th-largest rate in football.
- The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has displayed poor efficiency this year, allowing 8.01 adjusted yards-per-target: the 7th-most in football.
- The Arizona cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The model projects the Rams to call the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Cardinals, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 33.3 per game) this year.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Matthew Stafford’s throwing precision has diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 65.3% to 58.4%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards
263
Passing Yards
