Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 285.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 285.5 (-110) after it opened @ 261.5 (-114).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Josh Allen has thrown for substantially more yards per game (292.0) this season than he did last season (249.0).
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in football against the Detroit Lions defense this year (74.1%).

Cons

The Bills are a heavy 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
319
Passing Yards