NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Bryce YoungPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Panthers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Bryce Young’s passing yards prop is set at 201.5 yards (-114/-114).
Pros
- The Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 6.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- This week’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Panthers, who are massive -10.5-point underdogs.
- The leading projections forecast the Panthers as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The Panthers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 63.0 plays per game.
Cons
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Dallas Cowboys, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (just 28.6 per game) this year.
- When it comes to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Panthers profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
- Bryce Young has been one of the least accurate QBs in football this year with a 61.7% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 18th percentile.
- Bryce Young comes in as one of the worst per-play passers in football this year, averaging a measly 5.39 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 3rd percentile.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 4th-fewest yards in football (just 187.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
199
Passing Yards
199
Passing Yards
