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Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

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Baker Mayfield

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Player Props – Week 11

Ravens vs. Panthers

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 170.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 170.5 (-110) after it opened @ 195.5 (-114).

Pros

  • The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
  • The Panthers are a giant 13-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
  • The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (283.0 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
Cons

  • The Panthers have been the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 56.6% pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Carolina Panthers have called the least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.6 plays per game.
  • The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • The Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the 7th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Projection
THE BLITZ
207
Passing Yards

Previous Week 11 NFL Betting Preview: 49ers/Cardinals Next World Cup Betting Breakdown (Sunday 11/20)
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