Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Raiders vs. Jets
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (+104/-134).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (+104) after it opened @ 67.5 (-117).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Raiders to be the 8th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 44.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect Josh Jacobs to earn 21.5 carries in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
- Josh Jacobs has earned 80.3% of his team’s rushing play calls this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
- The Las Vegas O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
- The opposing side have run for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (135 per game) against the Jets defense this year.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Raiders are predicted by the projection model to run only 62.0 total plays in this game: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.2 plays per game.
- The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
- Josh Jacobs has rushed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (58.0) this season than he did last season (100.0).
- Josh Jacobs’s 3.3 adjusted yards per carry this season indicates a noteable regression in his rushing prowess over last season’s 5.0 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
93
Rushing Yards
93
Rushing Yards
