Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Steelers vs. Saints
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-135) after it opened @ 42.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers rank as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to total 6.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
- Pat Freiermuth has totaled many more air yards this season (54.0 per game) than he did last season (28.0 per game).
- Pat Freiermuth’s 39.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 26.8.
Cons
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-least in football.
- Pat Freiermuth’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 80.0% to 69.5%.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the least receiving yards per game in football (just 26.0) to tight ends this year.
- The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the lowest Completion% in football (52.6%) to TEs this year (52.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
