Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Vikings vs. Saints
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-120).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Saints to pass on 59.8% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are projected by the projections to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.
- The Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.7 plays per game.
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
- The Minnesota Vikings defense has yielded the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (173.0) to wide receivers this year.
Cons
- The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Chris Olave rates as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league, completing a mere 57.2% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 16th percentile among WRs
- Chris Olave’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, averaging a measly 6.68 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.44 rate last year.
- With a weak 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Chris Olave places as one of the best pass-catching WRs in football in the open field.
- As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota’s collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards
74
Receiving Yards
