NFL Splits Tool, Week 17: Big Games to Monitor

The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.

SIC have a new feature – The Injury Edge – Your NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet.

It’s a tool for quickly seeing which teams have a health-based advantage each week using the proven SIC Health Score algorithm.
The SIC Health Score algorithm has seen teams with a 10+ health advantage win at over 58% Against The Spread over 4 NFL seasons!

FTN subscribers can get one free week of premium access to see all of The Injury Edge, plus all of the team and player health scores in SIC Data! Just go to sicscore.com/premium and select the weekly SIC Data subscription, then apply the promo code FTN.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Carolina Panthers

Jaguars -6.5, O/U 38

Jaguars

The Jaguars lost their fourth consecutive game in Week 16, yet to pull off a win without Christian Kirk. The offense hasn’t looked the same without its top wide receiver, but Evan Engram has stepped up in Kirk’s absence, averaging almost nine receptions (8.5) and 75 receiving yards over his last four games.  

Although Calvin Ridley has matched Engram in targets during that span, he hasn’t been nearly as productive, failing to eclipse 55 receiving yards in three of his last four games.

Even if Zay Jones returns, Engram and Ridley should continue to dominate in targets but may be harder to trust if Trevor Lawrence is out. 

Lawrence is currently listed as questionable but logged a limited session in practice Thursday.

Panthers

Bryce Young hasn’t quite lived up to his draft day billing, but he showed encouraging signs of development in Week 16, throwing for over 300 yards for the first time in his career (312). Still, it’s hard to trust anyone from the Panthers’ offense for fantasy, outside of Chuba Hubbard, who has taken full control over the backfield since Frank Reich was let go, averaging over 22 touches (22.8) and nearly 90 combined rushing and receiving yards over his last four games.

Hubbard has handled at least 16 carries in every game during that span, clearing that mark just three times in Weeks 1-12.

Game Prop

DJ Chark Over 23.5 Receiving Yards

(-110, Bet365)

DJ Chark is coming off his best game of the season, catching six of eight passes for 98 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’s cleared 23.5-yard receiving prop in four out of the last five games, and now gets a matchup against his former team that has allowed the 12th most receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers (167.2).

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs -7, O/U 44.5

Bengals

The Bengals offense was abysmal without Ja’Marr Chase, scoring just 11 points in a blowout loss to the Steelers. Jake Browning threw for 335 yards on the day but found the end zone just once against three interceptions. The main beneficiary of Chase’s absence was Tee Higgins, who led the team with a season-high 140 receiving yards. Higgins has been hard to trust this season, but he has stepped up the last two weeks with Chase out or limited, finding the endzone three times with eight targets in back-to-back games.

Chase is questionable for Week 17 but may be done for the season with Cincinnati sitting outside the playoff picture looking in.

If Chase is out, Trent Irwin and Andrei Iosivas will split snaps as the third wide receiver.

Chiefs

The Chiefs had a forgettable Christmas Day, losing 20-14 to the Raiders, officially eliminating themselves from contention for No. 1 seed in the AFC. The offense continued to struggle as it has all season, continuing to lose critical members due to injuries. Isiah Pacheco exited mid-game with a concussion, putting his status in doubt for Week 17.

If Pacheco is unable to clear concussion protocol, Clyde Edwards-Helaire should draw the start, likely operating in a near-every-down role. With Pacheco sidelined in Weeks 14-15, Helaire averaged 84.5 combined rushing and receiving yards on 15 touches, despite losing significant work to Jerick McKinnon.

With McKinnon out for the season, Edwards-Helaire could be in line for a big day, facing a Bengals defense that has been decimated on the ground, ranked bottom five in DVOA against the rush (28th).

Game Prop

Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions

(-140, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Travis Kelce had logged six-plus receptions in nine out of his last 11 games entering Week 15, failing to clear that mark in back-to-back games. He’s due for a bounce back sooner rather than later and could not have asked for a better opponent than the Bengals, who rank dead last in DVOA against tight ends, allowing a league-high 6.5 receptions per game to the position.