NFL Week 5 FTN Staff Bets
FTN Staff
The FTN Fantasy Splits Tool rolls into the postseason, where I’ll be looking at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook in the playoffs. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
SIC have a new feature – The Injury Edge – Your NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet.
It’s a tool for quickly seeing which teams have a health-based advantage each week using the proven SIC Health Score algorithm.
The SIC Health Score algorithm has seen teams with a 10+ health advantage win at over 58% Against The Spread over 4 NFL seasons!
FTN subscribers can get one free week of premium access to see all of The Injury Edge, plus all of the team and player health scores in SIC Data! Just go to sicscore.com/premium and select the weekly SIC Data subscription, then apply the promo code FTN.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
Ravens -9.5, O/U 43.5
Texans
C.J. Stroud balled out in his playoff debut, completing 76.2% of his passes for 274 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions against Cleveland’s second-ranked defense in DVOA against the pass. Nico Collins scored the first touchdown of the day, leading the Texans with a 33% target share, catching 6 of 7 passes for 96 yards. Since returning from a calf injury in Week 11, Collins has taken his game to another level, averaging 8.1 targets, 6.6 receptions, and 106.3 receiving yards with Stroud under center.
Up next, Collins faces a Ravens defense that finished as the best team in DVOA against the pass (-28%), but outside the top 10 against WR1s (12th, -10.6%), allowing the fourth-most receptions per game to the position (9.2). With Noah Brown joining Tank Dell on injured reserve, Collins should continue to see massive volume in what projects to be a trailing gamescript.
Ravens
After a week of rest, the Ravens are getting back toward full strength coming out of the bye. We thought they might even get Mark Andrews back in the lineup, this week, which would have “likely” relegated Isaiah Likely to the bench outside of 12 personnel. Excluding Week 11, when Andrews exited after the first drive, Likely never once topped a 35% snap share with both tight ends available, averaging just 17 yards per game.
Fortunately for Likely, it appears Andrews isn’t quite ready to return yet, officially listed as doubtful for the Divisional Round. That means Likely should receive a full complement of snaps this weekend against a Texans defense that just gave up 92 yards to David Njoku. In the regular season, the Texans allowed the second-most receptions (5.9) and fifth-most receiving yards (57.2) per game to opposing tight ends.