Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We move on to Thursday’s six-game DFS slate in the NBA that features the return of a superstar player as well as potentially two short-handed teams in the Eastern Conference. Let’s break everything down.
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Suns @ Celtics preview
PHX -3.5, total: 220
The Suns are coming off the front end of a back-to-back where they faced the short-handed 76ers. Devin Booker has been a bit inconsistent of late, and the price is still pretty high at $8,800 on DraftKings. However, I think he is in play in tournaments here, facing a Celtics team that is allowing the fifth-most points per game to opposing shooters off screens (5.0), which could bode well for Booker, who is averaging 2.6 points per game off screens this season, good for the eighth-most in the NBA. However, I do not believe there should be a $1,200 difference in price between Booker and Chris Paul, who has been very good in three of his last four games. Meanwhile, Deandre Ayton has been much more consistent lately, scoring 40-plus fantasy points in three of his last five games. He struggled against Joel Embiid Wednesday night, but this is a much better matchup, facing a Boston team that is allowing the eighth-most post-up points per game on the year (5.6), as well as the third-most points per possession off putbacks. And while he isn’t always the highest-upside fantasy player, $4,800 for Mikal Bridges is a bit too cheap, especially when you consider he plays 35-38 minutes in any competitive game for the Suns.
For Boston, Kemba Walker has been dealing with an illness, but he is listed as probable for this game. After missing one game, Walker will be back, but at $7,400 against a very good Suns defense, he isn’t really on my radar — unless, of course, Jayson Tatum is ruled out with an ankle injury (he’s listed as questionable). With Tatum off the floor this season, Walker’s usage rate jumps up to a healthy 30%, a 4.2% bump, while averaging 1.21 fantasy points per minute in the split. Meanwhile, Jaylen Brown easily leads the Celtics with Tatum off the court this year at 36.2%, however, he is listed as doubtful for this game, which makes things really interesting. With Brown unlikely to play, I’d guess Tatum guts it out and plays, which makes him a very good option. The Suns are allowing the most points per game off isolation this season (8.9), while Tatum ranks 11th in the league in isolation points per game (3.8), and that number is going to be even higher with Brown sidelined. He is also sporting a massive 35.3% usage rate with Brown off the floor. If both Brown and Tatum sit, Grant Williams and Semi Ojeleye would see huge upticks in minutes and while both are low-usage players, they’d walk into more shots in this instance. Finally, Robert Williams will miss his fourth straight game with a knee injury, which will lead to another start for Tristan Thompson. He’s just $4,800 on DK.
Pelicans @ Magic preview
NOP -9, total: 222.5
Outside of Josh Hart and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the Pelicans are at full strength here against an Orlando team that is inside the bottom-five in defensive rating over the last 15 games. Zion Williamson is right at that $10,000 price tag, but I basically always want exposure to Zion, especially on a smaller slate like Thursday’s, especially against a Magic team that ranks bottom-five against both point forwards and crafty finishers, according to our advanced DVP tool. The problem with New Orleans is that their price tags are all basically right where they should be here, at least in my opinion. Orlando is also just 25th against primary ball handlers, which bodes well for Lonzo Ball, who still offers upside at his $7,000 price tag on DK.
Terrence Ross has missed the last two games due to back spasms, while Michael Carter-Williams and Otto Porter will remain out. I have been high on Cole Anthony as of late, as the ball is in his hands a lot. Over his last three games, Anthony has scored at least 35 fantasy points three times and since returning to the lineup, his 6.02 average seconds per touch are good for the third-most in all of basketball. He remains my favorite player from this team and it isn’t all that close. Outside of Anthony, Wendell Carter has been a much better fantasy player since joining the Magic but at $6,700 on DK, I think I prefer someone like Ayton at $200 less. And Chuma Okeke should be a fairly high floor option at his price, especially if Ross and/or James Ennis remain sidelined.
76ers @ Bucks preview
MIL -8, total: 225
Philadelphia has been without both Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris lately, as Simmons has missed two games in a row, while Harris has been out for three straight. Joel Embiid was questionable ahead of Wednesday’s game but ultimately played, scoring 38 points to go along with 17 rebounds and four assists. After the game, Embiid told reporters that he wasn’t supposed to play, and his body isn’t in the best shape at the moment but he does expect to play on the second end of a back-to-back. Assuming he is active, feel free to play Embiid, especially if the 76ers remain without Harris and/or Simmons. Speaking of Simmons, I actually have some interest in him at $7,900 against a Milwaukee team that plays at the third-fastest pace in the NBA. He triple-doubled earlier in the year against the Bucks but that came without Embiid in the lineup but when Simmons is even somewhat engaged, $7,900 is too cheap of a price tag. Simmons is also averaging a healthy 4.5 transition points per game this season, while sporting a 27.8% frequency rate off the play type, one of the highest rates in the NBA.
For Milwaukee, I expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to play in this game, though he did leave the Bucks last game late with a leg cramp. If for whatever reason he were ruled out, you’d know exactly what to do — lock in Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton as very, very strong plays, while Bobby Portis would see a huge boost. Of course, if Giannis is active, he is firmly in play at $10,800, regardless of the matchup, as he is still averaging a gaudy 1.63 fantasy points per minute over the course of the season.
Pistons @ Spurs preview
SAS -8.5, total: 216.5
At this point of the season, it is rare to find a game with no meaningful injuries but that appears to be the case here. For the Spurs, I always talk about how Dejounte Murray’s floor is pretty high, especially at his price tag that remains around the $7,000-$7,200 price range on DraftKings. This is also a good spot for DeMar DeRozan, who faces a Pistons defense that is coughing up the fifth-most points per possession (0.98) off isolation this season, as well as the fourth-highest field goal percentage off the play type (44.1%). DeRozan, meanwhile, is averaging 3.7 isolation points per game on the year, good for the 14th-most in the NBA. The Pistons also rank 24th against scorers and crafty finishers on the year, per our advanced DVP tool. Jakob Poeltl is also viable under $6,000 on DK and he’s now scored at least 31 fantasy points in each of the last three games.
For Detroit, using anyone from the frontcourt is pretty risky right now. Mason Plumlee has been in and out of the rotation as of late but started last game and logged 32 minutes. Of course, when he wasn’t in the rotation, Isaiah Stewart was playing 32 minutes and scoring a ton of fantasy points. However, his price is just under $6,000 on DK and if Plumlee gets decent run, Stewart will play very modest minutes. Meanwhile, Jerami Grant is firmly in play at $6,900, especially when you consider he is sporting a strong 29.6% usage rate over the last four weeks of play.
Hornets @ Bulls preview
CHI -1.5, total: 209.5
The Hornets are getting a bit healthier but are still going to be without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward and Malik Monk. Terry Rozier continues to dominate the usage for Charlotte. Over the last 10 games, Rozier is averaging a solid 82 touches per game (13th-most), up from his season average of 63.8 touches per game. As I discussed Wednesday, this is a great spot for point guards, as the Bulls are allowing a league-worst 23.0 points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll this season. They also rank 28th against scorers and 27th against primary ball handlers this season, which also puts Devonte' Graham in play, though his ceiling isn’t as high as Rozier’s. P.J. Washington is back to playing huge minutes and has now scored at least 34 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He’s been very good since returning from his ankle injury.
Nikola Vucevic is coming off his worst game since joining the Bulls and his worst game in a long, long time. However, even at $10,000 on DK, I am more than willing to go back to him here. He is still sporting a 29.3% usage rate and 30% rebounding rate with Zach LaVine off the floor since joining Chicago, while averaging 1.44 fantasy points per minute in the split. The Hornets, meanwhile, are coughing up the second-most rebounds per game to opposing centers this season (16.82), making this a very nice bounceback spot for Vucevic. Meanwhile, Coby White has underwhelmed for much of the year but has been better lately in LaVine’s absence, while his minutes have been up. His usage rate jumps up by 2.4% when LaVine is off the court this season, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. White is also averaging a healthy 4.7 spot-up points per game this season, which could bode well for him against a Charlotte team that is allowing the most points per game to spot-up shooters this year (36.9).
Lakers @ Mavericks preview
DAL -3.5, total: 216
Hey now! Anthony Davis is expected to make his return Thursday after missing 30 games. Assuming he is active, Davis is absolutely expected to be on some sort of minutes limit, but we know he is going to be the focal point of the Lakers offense whenever he’s on the floor. Frank Vogel said Davis will be limited to around 15 minutes in his first few games back, putting him out of consideration at $9,400 on DK. Meanwhile, Andre Drummond is probable with a toe injury and could actually still be in play, despite Davis returning to the lineup. However, no one on the Lakers really stands out as a top tier option on this slate. You should still get a strong floor from Dennis Schroder, who is averaging the third-most touches per game in basketball over the last 15 games (94.6).
For Dallas, meanwhile, it’s honestly Luka Doncic or bust for fantasy. I don’t love paying $9,000 on DK for Kristaps Porzingis, especially with Davis back for the Lakers. Doncic has scored at least 60 fantasy points in each of his last three contests, while attempting at least 20 shots in eight of his last 10 outings.
