NBA DFS Preview – First Look (2/16)

The NBA All-Star break is almost here, but we have one more massive DFS slate beforehand. Wednesday presents a loaded 11-game slate with a ton to keep track of. 

Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.

NBA Vegas Data for February 16 | NBA DFS First Look

Atlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic

ATL -6, total: 229
Pace: ATL (22nd), ORL (9th)

Situations to monitor:

• John Collins will remain sidelined for the Hawks.

Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics

BOS -12.5, total: 215
Pace: DET (9th), BOS (25th)

Situations to monitor:

• Robert Williams missed Tuesday’s game with a calf injury and will be listed as questionable for Wednesday. Meanwhile, Marcus Smart left Tuesday’s game with an ankle injury.

Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers

IND -1, total: 225.5
Pace: WAS (20th), IND (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kristaps Porzingis still won’t make his Washington debut. Rui Hachimura is listed as questionable with an ankle injury.
• For the Pacers, Malcolm Brogdon will be listed as questionable but likely won’t play. Meanwhile, Chris Duarte has already been ruled out, while Isaiah Jackson is listed as questionable. 

Brooklyn Nets @ New York Knicks

NYK -3.5, total: 217
Pace: BKN (8th), NYK (25th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kyrie Irving won’t be available once again for Brooklyn. 
• RJ Barrett will miss his fourth straight game with an ankle injury.

Sacramento Kings @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -5.5, total: 232.5
Pace: SAC (5th), CHI (14th)

Situations to monitor:

• Zach LaVine will remain out of the Bulls lineup. Javonte Green, meanwhile, is listed as questionable with an ankle injury.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -11.5, total: 228
Pace: POR (16th), MEM (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• Ja Morant missed Tuesday’s game with an ankle injury. With one final game before the All-Star break, Memphis could keep him out of the lineup.
• For Portland, Eric Bledsoe and Dennis Smith will remain sidelined.

Toronto Raptors @ Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN -1, total: 229.5
Pace: TOR (23rd), MIN (6th)

Situations to monitor:

• Fred VanVleet is listed as questionable with a knee injury. 
• Anthony Edwards left Tuesday’s game with a sprained ankle. It is very possible that he sits out Wednesday.

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder

SAS -7, total: 218
Pace: SAS (3rd), OKC (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Luguentz Dort will miss his second consecutive game with a shoulder injury. Ty Jerome and Kenrich Williams have also been ruled out for the Thunder.

Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns

PHX -15.5, total: 234.5
Pace: HOU (1st), PHX (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• This is the second end of a back-to-back for Phoenix, and it is right before the All-Star break. 

Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -5.5, total: 224.5
Pace: DEN (19th), GSW (11th)

Situations to monitor:

• Monte Morris (concussion) is listed as questionable for Denver.

Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Lakers

UTA -5.5, total: 226.5
Pace: UTA (15th), LAL (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• LeBron James is listed as questionable, while Anthony Davis is once again listed as probable.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Tyus Jones is sporting a 20% assist rate with Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks off the floor this season

Morant sat out Tuesday’s game with an ankle injury, and with this being the final game before the All-Star break, it is very possible the Grizzlies play it safe and let the MVP candidate sit again. Jones started at point guard in his absence and was fantastic, scoring 27 points while adding nine assists in 32 minutes. He recorded 84 touches, averaged 5.34 seconds per touch and possessed the ball for 7.5 minutes. And with Morant off the floor, Jones has always been a strong fantasy producer, sporting a 20% assist rate and averaging 1.03 fantasy points per minute with both Morant and Brooks off the court this season. In 14 games as a starter this season, Jones is averaging a solid 12.1 points, 6.2 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game. If Morant is once again ruled out, Jones becomes a free square.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 17.46 total rebounds per game to opposing centers

That is good for second in all of basketball, as the Oklahoma City interior defense has struggled for most of the season. The Thunder are also allowing the most blocks per game to the position (2.96), making this a very good spot for San Antonio’s Jakob Poeltl. The Thunder have also struggled to defend the post, coughing up the second-most points per possession (1.03) and the highest field goal percentage (55.9%) off post-ups. Poeltl went for nearly 40 fantasy points when these teams last met and that was only in about 26 minutes. With the Thunder also ranking 27th against rebounders and 24th against rim protectors, Poeltl should find plenty of success in this matchup.

Jayson Tatum is averaging 4.6 isolation points per game this season

That is good for ninth in the league, while Tatum is also sporting a near-20% frequency rate off the play type. He is coming off a stellar game against Philadelphia and now gets a much better matchup with a Pistons team that is coughing up the eighth-most isolation points per game on the year (7.1), as well as the 10th-worst field goal percentage off the play type (40.9%). Detroit is also allowing the seventh-most points per game (4.8) and second-most points per possession (1.16) off screens this season, which bodes well for Tatum, who is averaging two points per game off the play type. Over the last few games, Tatum has appeared to find his three-point shot which could make all of the difference.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Tyus Jones vs. POR — It was discussed earlier but if Ja Morant is ruled out, do not get cute. Jones would once again become the best play of the slate, as he is averaging over a fantasy point per minute to go along with a 20% assist rate with both Morant and Dillon Brooks off the floor this season.

Bruce Brown vs NYK — Brown started last game and was outstanding, scoring 52 fantasy points in 38 minutes. Of course, the three blocks and five steals certainly aren’t sustainable, but the minutes and opportunity will be there, especially with Brooklyn still without Kyrie Irving.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Trae Young (60.25)
Buddy Hield (49.0)
Miles Bridges (57.25)
Maxi Kleber (39.5)
Evan Mobley (51.0)
Tyus Jones (44.25)
Jaden McDaniels (41.5)
Karl-Anthony Towns (68.25)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Patrick Beverley (42.4)
Tyus Jones (42.7)
CJ McCollum (53.7)
Buddy Hield (44.4)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (69.8)
Miles Bridges (53.1)
Jaden McDaniels (45.7)
Nicolas Batum (36.9)
Karl-Anthony Towns (64.5)