Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The NBA season is officially back. After a successful “restart” in Orlando, the NBA regular season starts just 71 days since it’s last season ended, the shortest offseason in pro sports history. While this season is just 72 games, don’t expect to see any less competition as the top of the Eastern Conference has improved while the West remains a juggernaut.
In case you missed it, check out our Eastern Conference team previews and our Western Conference teams preview.
The FTN Betting Breakdown is a new article series we are featuring this year on FTNBets where we will have a daily breakdown of the day’s NBA betting slate. This breakdown will feature key injury news and updates and how players and teams are affected by said news to give you the opportunity to potentially jump on some lines.
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Detroit Pistons @ Atlanta Hawks (-10)
Game total: 223
Key Injuries
DET: Derrick Rose OUT, Blake Griffin OUT, Jahlil Okafor QUEST, Sekou Doumbouya PROB
ATL: Kris Dunn OUT, Tony Snell OUT, Danilo Gallinari QUEST, Clint Capela PROB
The Pistons open up as big underdogs with both Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin unavailable listed at a consensus line of +373. With no Rose and Blake, we can expect guys like Delon Wright, Killian Hayes, Josh Jackson and Jerami Grant to see increased usage and/or minutes. We should also expect to see less competition production for Mason Plumlee.
While the sample size is still too small, the Hawks seem to be an improved defense, ranking seventh in defensive rating through two games. They have maintained their expected high pace, ranking sixth. From a props perspective, I have heavy interest in Delon Wright, as I don’t feel as if the books have priced him up opening him at 10.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists. Jerami Grant’s points prop opens at 16.5 with plus-money on the over on most books. While the juice is very high on Mason Plumlee’s over 3.5 assists prop (-180), FanDuel Sportsbook is offering plus-money at 4.5. With no Blake Griffin, I expect we see more Mason Plumlee operating in the post as a playmaker.
I am interested in the Hawks against the spread versus what will be a very bad Pistons team tonight. Clint Capela is expected to make his season debut, which should help fortify Atlanta’s defense. The lack of shotmakers on Detroit combined with the appealing pace this game should be played at has me not wanting to take a stance on the game total.
The books have Trae Young listed at 29.5 points and 8.5 assists with the over on assists heavily juiced in the -140+ range. Young’s biggest risk to production is a potential blowout. A long-shot bet that is intriguing is Capela to score the first field goal at +700. I would expect Capela to start and win the tip against Mason Plumlee, and we’ve seen teams in the past let their “new” player get an easy basket to start.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Brooklyn Nets (-4)
Game total: 232.5
Key Injuries
MEM: DeAnthony Melton OUT, Justise Winslow OUT, Jaren Jackson Jr. OUT
BK: Spencer Dinwiddie OUT, Kevin Durant OUT, Jeff Green QUEST
With Kevin Durant ruled out, we’ve seen the line move from -5.5 to -4, and I would expect that line to continue to move down throughout the day. While the Nets have been the most efficient defensive team in the NBA to start the season, Kevin Durant plays a big role in that. In his minutes off the court thus far, Brooklyn has seen their defensive rating increase (that is negative toward defense) by 11.22. This game has track meet potential, and I am interested in the over 232.5.
A big part of the Grizzlies offense that will benefit without Kevin Durant is both Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks. Morant up at plus-money to go over 24.5 points while his assist number of 7.5 is heavily juiced on the over. Brooks is also plus-money at 18.5 points. I view 18.5 points as a fair projection though, as Brooks is a volatile player. I am more intrigued at his 3 p.m. total of 2.5 with the over in the +140 range.
No Durant means increased usage for Caris LeVert and Kyrie Irving while increased minutes for guys like Taurean Prince, Landry Shamer and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot. At the moment, books have taken down Nets props so be sure to check Bet Tracker for more info on Nets props. You can expect me to have heavy interest in LeVert (depending on price), as he will see nearly a 40% usage rating in his 10-15 minutes on the floor that he won’t share with Kyrie Irving.
Utah Jazz (-8.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Game total: 218
Key Injuries
UTA: None
OKC: Trevor Ariza QUEST
From a props perspective, this is a game I have the least interest in, as everything is priced fairly considering the expected slow pace and blowout potential. Where I have some interest is in Utah against the spread, as they have looked really good to start the season and I project the Thunder to be one of the worst teams in the NBA. If this game was scheduled later in the season, we would be looking at a 12-point-plus spread.
One Thunder player who I do have some prop intrigue in his Darius Bazley, as the books continue to list his rebounding prop at 7.5. Bazley is one of the stronger rebounders on OKC and continues to crash the defensive glass while seeing big minutes. I expect this number to average out around 8.5 as the season progresses. All that said, this isn’t the best matchup for Bazley and would recommend looking elsewhere.
Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets (-6.5)
Game total: 222
Key Injuries
HOU: John Wall OUT, Eric Gordon OUT, DeMarcus Cousins OUT, Ben McLemore OUT
DEN: JaMychal Green OUT
The Rockets will once again be without John Wall, Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins, paving the way for another mega-usage Harden game. In their previous game, the Rockets played at the slowest pace in the NBA, that is because they run iso-sets with Harden on almost every play he’s in, which dramatically slows down the pace. Harden opens up at 32.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 9.5 assists. I am most interested in that assist prop. The books have priced up Christian Wood fairly high with heavy juice on the over on both his 22.5 points prop and 9.5 rebounds prop. As much as I love Christian Wood the player, I worry about him, a touch, matched up against Jokic.
Where we saw the Rockets really struggle against Portland was rebounding, as they just did not have the size to match up with Jusuf Nurkic. Tonight, they have to deal with Nikola Jokic and while his rebounding prop of 9.5 is heavily juiced up, I would be interested in looking at some alt-totals. FanDuel Sportsbook lists him at +108 to grab over 10.5 rebounds, I have Jokic projected for 14 rebounds.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers (-4)
Game total: 225
Key Injuries
POR: Carmelo Anthony OUT, Zach Collins OUT,
LAL: LeBron James QUEST, Alex Caruso QUEST, Anthony Davis QUEST
We end the night in Los Angeles with a whole lot of uncertainty with both Anthony Davis and LeBron James listed as questionable. The Lakers are on a second of a back-to-back where Anthony Davis sat on the front-end. As it stands now, I would guess James does not play tonight while Davis does play. That said, this has such major ramifications on this game. If only one of the two play, I view the Lakers -4 line as fair, if both sit out, I would expect the Blazers to be listed as slight favorites. The Lakers don’t have any player props listed yet aside from Anthony Davis scoring the first field goal, which suggests the books expect Davis to play. Be sure to hop into our Discord NBA Betting channel for updates on this game.
