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MLB Best Bets

Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs

This may come off as a bit chalky, but the Dodgers team total has been a cash cow early in 2024, hitting at a 100% clip, going 8-0-0. Through the first week (and their two Korea games), the Dodgers rank fourth in batting average (.293), fourth in ISO (.194), third in wOBA (.377), and fifth in wRC+ (129). When the top half of your lineup has Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, that doesn’t sound so surprising.

With left-handed pitcher Kyle Harrison as San Francisco’s probable starter, we should see Chris Taylor and Kiké Hernández crack Los Angeles’ lineup. Of course, this lineup also has Max Muncy and Teoscar Hernández, both of whom are off to excellent starts this season.

Harrison, San Francisco’s top prospect, has been quite serviceable during his brief time at the big league level, posting a 3.98 ERA and 23.5% strikeout rate. The bad news however is Harrison’s 22.5% whiff rate is well below league average, and his FIP sits at 5.61, suggesting Harrison has been quite fortunate during his brief MLB run. The two other concerning numbers are Harrison’s 55.7% fly ball rate and 2.21 HR/9 surrendered. With the depth of this Dodgers lineup, and seemingly every bat in the lineup being a home run threat (particularly given in this particular split), I have a difficult time staying away from the Dodgers team total Wednesday.