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Bettings

As the NFL season progresses, we’ll use our FTN Splits Tool to look for team- and player-level trends to help us through our fantasy season. As we head into Week 5, we can look at our splits tool to identify three things to watch for this weekend.

Biggest Spread of Week 9

This Bills-Jaguars game has all of the makings of a demolition. Buffalo has run the most plays in the league with a field goal or greater lead. That total sits at 350 plays heading into Week 9. Only Arizona (303) and Tampa Bay (253) are even within 100 plays run in that game state.

Since the start of 2020, the Bills have been favored by 9.5 or more points on four occasions. Things haven’t gone well in those games from a scoring perspective.

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They score nearly 7 fewer points despite running more plays. (To be fair, that’s a relatively small sample.)

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When we expand out to games where they were favored at all, they average about 31 points. The biggest question mark on the Bills side, in my opinion, is Stefon Diggs.

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Diggs has been a bit of a disaster this year. From a volume perspective, he’s right in line with his 2020 campaign, but Diggs hasn’t done much with those targets through the first two months of the season this year.

On the Jaguars side, it’s more of the same for them. They’ve been the underdog by more than a field goal in 31 of 39 games dating back to the start of 2019. They’re averaging 19.3 points per game in that sample. We hope that they can push the Bills to continue to throw. In neutral scripts, Buffalo has the third-highest pass rate at 64.5%. If we look at when they get above 8 points, they drop down to 12th at 47.9%.

The Highest Total of Week 9

The Titans-Rams game has a 53.5 total. Technically, the over/under in the Green Bay-Kansas City game is higher, but we talk about them enough. There’s also some intrigue surrounding the Titans, in general, after the injury to Derrick Henry.

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In high total games, since the start of 2019, the Titans have been very efficient and put together long drives. Tennessee has run the same amount of plays on 2.4 fewer drives per game. Every metric outside of rush attempts is up in the higher scoring environment.

It’s actually a bit of a pace-down spot for Los Angeles. They’re 11th in sec/snap in neutral gamescript, but Tennessee is down at 19th.

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This season, the Rams have been in four games with a total of 50 or higher. The numbers haven’t been too exciting in those higher total spots. They’ve run more plays but have scored fewer points and touchdowns. It doesn’t mean you’re avoiding the studs in this contest for season-long, but I’d temper expectations in case this game doesn’t go as expected.

Jonathan Taylor has Overall RB1 Potential

There’s a vacuum at the top of the RB landscape with Henry’s injury. Enter Jonathan Taylor as the stud everyone wishes they had down the stretch.

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After a slow start from a production perspective, Taylor is averaging over 21.6 DK points per game over his last handful of games. The arrow is pointing up for JT, and the Colts get a Thursday Night Football tilt against the Jets as 10.5-point favorites.