Bettings

No shock here. Dak has one of the highest ceilings among quarterbacks in fantasy football, but he’s also prone to a few terrible games each year, which is why his Underdog ADP is around 100 as QB9 overall. Personally, I think that’s fantastic value. The two or three bad games are more than made up for by the 25- and even 30-plus games he produces. It’s also extremely easy to stack Dak with CeeDee Lamb if you have an early draft slot, which will auto-lock in a few wins for you.

2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson is similar to Dak in that he has a few bad games each year. This happens when he doesn’t hit his usual rushing floor because Jackson’s passing stats are not always insane. However, his floor is usually higher than Dak’s and so is his ceiling — all thanks to his rushing. Jackson is absolutely a top-three fantasy quarterback, top-five at worst.

3. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

The actual No. 3 most volatile quarterback last season with Sam Howell, but he’s not a starter in 2024 so we’re skipping him. Which leads us to Stroud, who started off really strong as a rookie and then started to hit elite levels starting in Week 9. Houston fully invested around Stroud, and now he has one of the most deadly receiving corps in the NFL. Look out.

4. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert just might be the best value in fantasy football right now — across all positions. The fears are that A) his new head coach is literally obsessed with rushing the ball and B) Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are gone (and so is Austin Ekeler). Those are, of course, valid concerns, but let’s remember that elite quarterback play transcends situations nearly every time.

5. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow is starting to get a rep for starting slow and then exploding once October rolls around. He did that last year, which is why he ended up on the most volatile list. I’m actually surprised he wasn’t first given how bad his early games were and how good his pre-injury games were. Burrow is being drafted as QB8 and 90th overall and is an elite value in that range. There’s nothing about his situation in 2024 that makes him less valuable entering the season than he was in 2023 — and he was being drafted as a top-five quarterback last season. Take the discount all day long for this explosive player.

Methodology

To compile these lists, we took the top players from each position in terms of total half-PPR fantasy points last year (for QBs, it was top 25) and measured the standard deviation for each player.

The average (mean) gives us a general sense of how good the player is, but the standard deviation tells us how consistent they are. A low standard deviation means the player is consistent — they score about the same number of points every week. A high standard deviation means the player is less consistent — their weekly scores vary a lot.