Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tony PollardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Panthers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 67.5 (-105) after it opened @ 69.5 (-110).
Pros
- With a 11.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to run on 45.0% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
- The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to run the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.8 plays per game.
- Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in football (143 per game) versus the Panthers defense this year.
Cons
- The model projects the Cowboys offensive gameplan to skew 6.4% more towards the passing game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
- Tony Pollard has been less successful in grinding out extra ground yardage this season, averaging 2.70 yards-after-contact vs a 3.82 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards
77
Rushing Yards
