Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jaylen WarrenRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Browns vs. Steelers
Right now, Jaylen Warren’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-114/-114).
Pros
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.1 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
- After comprising 16.3% of his team’s rushing play calls last season, Jaylen Warren has been called on more in the run game this season, now comprising 31.4%.
- The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
- Jaylen Warren’s 36.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season conveys a substantial growth in his rushing skills over last season’s 23.0 figure.
- Jaylen Warren’s running effectiveness (4.62 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (80th percentile among RBs).
Cons
- The 5th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a lowly 54.9 per game on average).
- The Cleveland Browns defense has produced the 4th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding just 3.75 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
- When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in stopping the run, Cleveland’s collection of DTs has been great this year, projecting as the 8th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards
52
Rushing Yards
