Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tanner HudsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Ravens vs. Bengals
Right now, Tanner Hudson’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 18.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-114).
Pros
- This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Bengals, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
- Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 68.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
- In this contest, Tanner Hudson is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 77th percentile among TEs with 3.9 targets.
- Tanner Hudson has been a more important option in his team’s pass attack this year (12.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.3%).
Cons
- The projections expect the Bengals offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.87 seconds per snap.
- The Bengals O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Tanner Hudson’s 6.8 adjusted yards per target this season signifies an impressive regression in his pass-catching skills over last season’s 8.2 figure.
- With an impressive 6.22 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (76th percentile) since the start of last season, Tanner Hudson stands among the best pass-catching TEs in the league in picking up extra yardage.
- This year, the fierce Baltimore Ravens defense has yielded a mere 34.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 3rd-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
