Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Ravens vs. Bengals
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-140/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-140) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may go down.
- The projections expect Mark Andrews to accrue 6.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs.
- Mark Andrews is positioned as one of the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 59.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.
- This year, the porous Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up a staggering 63.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-most in the league.
Cons
- With a 3.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are predicted by the projections to call only 62.8 total plays in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
- Mark Andrews’s 23.1% Target Share this season reflects a significant decline in his passing game workload over last season’s 29.9% mark.
- After accruing 79.0 air yards per game last year, Mark Andrews has seen a big decline this year, currently boasting 53.0 per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards
57
Receiving Yards
