Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.63 seconds per snap.
The predictive model expects A.J. Brown to accumulate 8.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
As it relates to air yards, A.J. Brown ranks in the lofty 97th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, accumulating a remarkable 104.0 per game.
A.J. Brown’s 72.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 98th percentile for WRs.
A.J. Brown has been among the top wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 82.0 yards per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.

Cons

The Philadelphia Eagles will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Eagles are a heavy 8.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The projections expect the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Washington’s collection of CBs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, projecting as the 5th-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards