Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Titans vs. Bengals
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-114).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Titans to be the 10th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast Derrick Henry to earn 18.5 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
- Derrick Henry has garnered 73.9% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
- Derrick Henry has generated 85.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in football when it comes to running backs (98th percentile).
- The Bengals linebackers project as the 8th-worst collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Cons
- The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The model projects the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.0 plays per game.
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may go down.
- Opposing teams have run for the 7th-fewest yards in football (just 107 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards
78
Rushing Yards
