Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Bengals vs. Rams
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 250.5 (-105) after it opened @ 252.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Rams to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Matthew Stafford has attempted 37.6 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 84th percentile among quarterbacks.
- The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 3rd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Rams to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions this week.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Matthew Stafford’s passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 61.6%.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 8th-least yards in football (just 206.0 per game) versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
251
Passing Yards
251
Passing Yards
