WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Puka NacuaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Bengals vs. Rams
Right now, Puka Nacua’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-135/-101).
The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-135) after it opened @ 61.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Rams to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect Puka Nacua to accumulate 9.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown poor efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, surrendering 8.95 yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.
- The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 3rd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Rams to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions this week.
- The leading projections forecast Puka Nacua to be a much smaller piece of his team’s passing offense this week (27.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (38.8% in games he has played).
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.91 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
