Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 72.5 (-115) after it opened @ 74.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 143.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to notch 9.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
- CeeDee Lamb has totaled significantly more receiving yards per game (82.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).
Cons
- The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.4%) versus wideouts this year (63.4%).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. WRs this year, giving up 7.40 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in football.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.84 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards
78
Receiving Yards
