Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Chargers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 76.5 (-110) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 66.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to total 10.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among TEs.
- Travis Kelce has posted significantly more air yards this season (74.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
- Travis Kelce has accrued significantly more receiving yards per game (89.0) this season than he did last season (59.0).
Cons
- The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in the NFL.
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (63%) vs. tight ends this year (63.0%).
- The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
88
Receiving Yards
88
Receiving Yards
