College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Giants vs. Ravens
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 72.5 (-115) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Giants have been the 7th-most run-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 43.0% run rate.
- The New York Giants have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to total 17.5 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
- Saquon Barkley has been much more involved in his offense’s running game this season (72.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (58.1%).
- Saquon Barkley has run for quite a few more yards per game (99.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).
Cons
- The Giants are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 9th-least yards in football (just 102 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
- The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
