Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We head to Week 13 of the NFL season with no teams having clinched a playoff spot or been eliminated from playoff contention. That will certainly change after this week, so expect all teams to give their best effort of the season.
Each week, I will select my favorite prop bets for Thursday night. You can find all our Week 13 player projections here at FTNBets. All of the available betting lines for this week’s opening matchup are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you can easily shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.
Let’s take a look at my favorite prop for this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup.
Week 13 Player Prop
DK Metcalf Over 56.5 Receiving Yards
(-117, Unibet)
This Seattle passing attack has been inconsistent all season, but this number is simply too low for Seattle’s clear WR1. DK Metcalf is coming off a disappointing performance against San Francisco where he produced a season-low 32 receiving yards. However, Metcalf still saw nine targets, his third straight game with nine or more targets from quarterback Geno Smith.
Metcalf has crested this number in six of 10 games this season and can only benefit in a game environment where Seattle could be chasing points. Per our FTNFantasy Splits Tool, in the three games where Seattle has been a touchdown favorite or more, Metcalf has easily beat this number. In fact, Metcalf’s numbers increase across the board in these situations.
Dallas has a superior defense, but Metcalf’s volume should get him over this number. Regardless of game script, I trust Metcalf reaching 60 yards as the clear WR1 in this Seattle offense. Even in their last two comfortable wins over Washington and Carolina, both Curtis Samuel and Adam Thielen have reached 70 receiving yards or more.
I’m backing Metcalf even in a bad road matchup on Thursday Night Football.
