Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
With a one-week break from PGA Tour action, it feels like we’ve been gone forever. Play resumes this week in Napa. It’s not officially a new season but most of the superstars are done for the year or they will play sparingly.
On the bright side, we are done with the “lock Scottie or Xander” at the top kind of analysis for a while now. So who will shine at Silverado Resorts and Spa this week? Let’s dive in to course to see if that gives us any hints.
Course Fit
Silverado Resort and Spa’s North Course is the host this week. The tournament may have a new title sponsor, but the course is not new. We have plenty of data on the layout.
Playing at 7,123 yards on the card, this par 72 is not long by any means. In fact, when you look at frequency of approach shot yardages, you’ll see that wedges really overindex relative to the average Tour track.
Off the tee, golfers see some of the tightest corridors they see all year so it’s not surprising to see just 54% of fairways hit. From there, they are still able to manage 68% GIR so there is not much of a problem playing from the rough here.
If you are diving real deep you might look at performance on courses with a small missed-fairway penalty or look at performance on other tree-lined tracks.
In fact, let’s do just that and combine that with performance on short courses and courses with poa greens.
Here are the names who show the biggest increase in performance when playing courses with similar splits, relative to their baseline.
- Gary Woodland
- Chez Reavie
- Adam Schenk
- K.H. Lee
- Robby Shelton
- Adam Svensson
- Ben Silverman
- Zac Blair
- Nick Taylor
- Beau Hossler
Head over to the Split Stats page to see who the top performers are in these split stat categories.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
This list certainly passes the eye test in terms of order but do any of these names really deserve to be this close to single digits? Probably not.
Procore Championship Free Golf Bets
Adam Svensson Top-20 Finish (+225)
He posted a 12th-place finish last year in Napa and ended his 2024 regular season with a top-10 at Sedgefield.
When you look at his past performance on similar courses, he ranks 12th in the field when it comes to top-20 rates (37%). That number would imply a +170 fair price but we are getting +225 this week.
Nick Taylor Top-10 Finish (+750)
The Canadian is in the top 10th percentile on Tour when it comes to strokes gained per shot with a wedge in hand. That’s perfect for a wedge-heavy layout like Silverado.
He’s proven that to be true in the past, too, with top-10s in three of his last five tries in Napa.
Zac Blair to Win 100-1 (one-fourth each-way for 5 places)
He ranks 28th in the field in top-five rate on similar courses. That doesn’t look amazing but it’s very strong for someone with a triple-digit outright price.
Blair is a Utah guy so he’s comfortable out West on bent-poa turf.
His weaknesses comes on long approaches but Silverado swaps out a lot of those 200 to 250 yards shots with wedges, which is more of a strength for the straight shooter.
With a T-4 in 2019 and T-12 in 2022, we know this is a course that catches his eye.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
