Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Miles SandersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Seahawks vs. Panthers
Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+107/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-139) after it opened @ 60.5 (-117).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 44.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Miles Sanders to garner 17.2 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-most yards in the league (146 per game) vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Miles Sanders’s rushing effectiveness has worsened this season, notching just 3.25 yards-per-carry vs a 4.84 mark last season.
- Miles Sanders has been worse at picking up extra rushing yardage this season, totaling 1.81 yards-after-contact vs a 3.02 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards
74
Rushing Yards
