Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Buccaneers vs. Eagles
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-140/+110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-140) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Eagles to run the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.1 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The leading projections forecast A.J. Brown to earn 8.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.
- A.J. Brown has notched a monstrous 104.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- A.J. Brown’s pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this year, totaling a measly 7.77 yards-per-target vs a 9.99 mark last year.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.6%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (64.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Receiving Yards
71
Receiving Yards
