Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Buccaneers vs. Eagles
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 229.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 229.5 (-105) after it opened @ 233.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 63.7 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 8.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
- Baker Mayfield has attempted a mere 14.7 passes per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 5th percentile among QBs.
- Baker Mayfield has been among the weakest quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 85.0 yards per game while grading out in the 5th percentile.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-lowest level in the NFL vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season (67.1%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
224
Passing Yards
224
Passing Yards
