Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Commanders vs. 49ers
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Commanders defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (38.1 per game) this year.
- Deebo Samuel has run a route on 90.2% of his team’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
- In this week’s contest, Deebo Samuel is projected by the model to find himself in the 81st percentile among WRs with 7.0 targets.
- After totaling 32.0 air yards per game last year, Deebo Samuel has seen a big uptick this year, now averaging 49.0 per game.
- Deebo Samuel has notched a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (62.0) this season than he did last season (52.0).
Cons
- The 49ers are an enormous 14-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the projection model to call only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.1 plays per game.
- The 49ers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
