Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Will LevisPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Texans vs. Titans
Right now, Will Levis’s passing yards prop is set at 212.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on passing than their normal approach.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- This year, the shaky Texans defense has surrendered a monstrous 269.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 5th-most in the NFL.
- This year, the poor Texans defense has surrendered the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing offenses: a whopping 8.32 yards.
Cons
- Right now, the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the NFL (56.5% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Tennessee Titans.
- Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Titans are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 64.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The 4th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Titans this year (a measly 55.2 per game on average).
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Titans profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year.
- As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Houston’s collection of CBs has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
232
Passing Yards
232
Passing Yards
