Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Bears vs. Cardinals
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-109/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-120) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect Cole Kmet to accrue 5.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- Cole Kmet has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 19.7% this year, which ranks him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
- When talking about air yards, Cole Kmet grades out in the towering 83rd percentile among TEs this year, averaging a massive 31.0 per game.
- Cole Kmet’s 45.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season illustrates a significant improvement in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 32.0 rate.
- Cole Kmet’s possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 74.3% to 84.0%.
Cons
- The Bears are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Bears to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see only 126.7 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest out of all the games this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
- The Chicago offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all passing game stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
