Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jake Browning from EV Insight

Jake BrowningPassing Yards

Right now, Jake Browning’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-131) after it opened @ 234.5 (-117).

Pros

The Bengals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Jake Browning.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.
With an exceptional 74.9% Adjusted Completion% (90th percentile) this year, Jake Browning has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in the league.
Jake Browning ranks as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 8.53 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 93rd percentile.
This year, the feeble Pittsburgh Steelers defense has given up the 3rd-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing offenses: a massive 5.46 YAC.

Cons

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
At the moment, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Pittsburgh Steelers, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 34.1 per game) this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in football versus the Steelers defense this year (66.4% Adjusted Completion%).
As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Pittsburgh’s group of LBs has been one of the most skilled this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
238
Passing Yards