Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kyle Pitts from EV Insight

Kyle PittsReceiving Yards

Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are forecasted by the projections to run 67.2 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.
The Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
This week, Kyle Pitts is expected by the projection model to place in the 94th percentile among TEs with 6.6 targets.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
After accumulating 77.0 air yards per game last season, Kyle Pitts has seen a big decrease this season, currently boasting 61.0 per game.
Kyle Pitts’s 46.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 63.1.
Kyle Pitts’s talent in generating extra yardage have tailed off this season, compiling just 2.51 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.61 rate last season.
The Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (69.8%) vs. tight ends this year (69.8%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards