Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cade OttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 21.5 (-110).
Pros
- The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Cade Otton has run fewer routes this season (87.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (63.9%).
- The leading projections forecast Cade Otton to total 4.7 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs.
- This year, the anemic Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered a whopping 60.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 4th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Buccaneers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.2 plays per game.
- Cade Otton is positioned as one of the bottom TEs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 2nd percentile.
- This year, the tough Falcons defense has given up a feeble 69.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 5th-smallest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
