Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cade Otton from EV Insight

Cade OttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 21.5 (-110).

Pros

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Cade Otton has run fewer routes this season (87.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (63.9%).
The leading projections forecast Cade Otton to total 4.7 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs.
This year, the anemic Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered a whopping 60.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 4th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Buccaneers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.2 plays per game.
Cade Otton is positioned as one of the bottom TEs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 2nd percentile.
This year, the tough Falcons defense has given up a feeble 69.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 5th-smallest rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards