Week 14 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

The FTN Fantasy moneyline underdog pick could not escape the brutal four-interception performance from Kirk Cousins. The Falcons fell short of upsetting the Chargers, suffering a 17-13 home loss. It’s worth noting that Cousins has struggled mightily against any team not named Tampa Bay. Per our FTN Splits Tool, Cousins has a massive difference in production, specifically passing yards, passing touchdowns and fantasy points. 

We turn the page to Week 14 to restart our hot moneyline stream from just two weeks ago. Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 14 of the 2024 season.

Week 14 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Chargers +4 at Chiefs 

(+172, DraftKings Sportsbook)

I’ve waited to make this pick all year. The Chargers have built their roster to beat the Chiefs, and I’m projecting that to come to fruition in Week 14. Los Angeles ranks sixth overall in defensive DVOA, including fifth against the pass. They also have a huge chess piece in safety Derwin James Jr., who missed the first matchup with Kansas City due to a suspension. James is a critical part of limiting tight end Travis Kelce (and maybe Noah Gray?) and is also a strong part of the Los Angeles run defense. 

In their first matchup this year, not only was James suspended, but Los Angeles played without their top two offensive linemen in rookie Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. Quarterback Justin Herbert was still battling a foot injury as well, and the Chargers narrowly lost 17-10. Given Kansas City’s repeated miracle escapes from defeat, this spot is perfect for the Chargers. 

Assuming rookie wideout Ladd McConkey plays, Los Angeles will still have enough offensive weapons to attack a Chiefs pass defense that ranks just 16th in DVOA. Kansas City also ranks second worst at defending opposing WR3s per DVOA-adjusted fantasy points against, and fifth worst against tight ends. The loss of running back J.K. Dobbins certainly is a challenge, but veterans Gus Edwards, Hassan Haskins and dynamic rookie Kimani Vidal provide enough variety and depth to compensate. 

Kansas City has won six straight games against the Chargers, but five of those games have been decided by seven points or less. Our FTN NFL Betting Model assigns the highest side edge to the Chargers +3.5 this week. We project the Chargers to win this game 21.4 to 19.4, which equates to a 9.9% edge. I’ve waited all year for this moneyline pick, and I’m rolling with the Chargers to cash our Week 14 underdog pick. 

Risk

1 Unit to Win 1.72 Units