Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Packers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their downs: the 5th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
- The model projects Travis Kelce to earn 9.1 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile among TEs.
- With a sizeable 24.7% Target Rate (99th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce has been among the TEs with the highest volume in the league.
- Travis Kelce has put up a massive 62.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- Travis Kelce’s possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 74.6% to 82.5%.
Cons
- A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- At the moment, the 10th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Kansas City Chiefs.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.
- Travis Kelce has accrued many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (73.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).
- This year, the strong Packers defense has surrendered a mere 69.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 7th-best rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
