Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Packers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-143/+112).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 249.5 (+112) after it opened @ 258.5 (-113).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their downs: the 5th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
- In this week’s game, Patrick Mahomes is expected by the predictive model to average the 3rd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.5.
- Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the most on-target QBs in football this year with a remarkable 68.6% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 77th percentile.
Cons
- A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- At the moment, the 10th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Kansas City Chiefs.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.
- Patrick Mahomes has thrown for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (277.0) this season than he did last season (325.0).
- Patrick Mahomes’s throwing effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating a mere 7.42 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.54 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
274
Passing Yards
274
Passing Yards
