Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Browns vs. Steelers
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 32.5 (-114) after it opened @ 30.5 (-114).
Pros
- The projections expect this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a colossal 66.7 per game on average).
- This week, David Njoku is anticipated by the projection model to find himself in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.8 targets.
- The Cleveland Browns offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all air attack metrics across the board.
- David Njoku’s 8.58 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year conveys a remarkable growth in his efficiency in the open field over last year’s 5.2% figure.
Cons
- The model projects the Cleveland Browns to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 49.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- After averaging 45.0 air yards per game last season, David Njoku has significantly declined this season, now averaging 17.0 per game.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, David Njoku has been utilized much less in his team’s pass attack.
- David Njoku has put up quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (43.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
- This year, the fierce Pittsburgh Steelers defense has surrendered a feeble 69.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 9th-best rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
