Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bears vs. Panthers
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 16.5 yards (-142/+104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 16.5 (-142) after it opened @ 14.5 (-123).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers offensive approach to tilt 6.5% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
- A throwing game script is indicated by the Panthers being a -3-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- The Panthers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 63.8 plays per game.
- The Bears defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.1 per game) this year.
- Hayden Hurst has put up a massive 28.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Panthers to pass on 56.1% of their plays: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Panthers to call the 8th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Hayden Hurst has been featured much less in his offense’s passing offense.
- In regards to pass protection (and the influence it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Panthers ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year.
- Hayden Hurst’s 19.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year conveys a material diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last year’s 33.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards
16
Receiving Yards
