Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Connor HeywardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Steelers vs. Packers
Right now, Connor Heyward’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 21.5 (-115) after it opened @ 20.5 (-122).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Connor Heyward has been a much bigger part of his team’s pass attack this season (8.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (2.8%).
- Connor Heyward has accumulated significantly more air yards this season (17.0 per game) than he did last season (6.0 per game).
- This year, the weak Packers defense has been torched for the 9th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a staggering 7.75 yards.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week’s game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their typical game plan.
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Steelers this year (a measly 54.5 per game on average).
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 9th-fewest in football.
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.
- Connor Heyward’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 81.3% to 67.5%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
