Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Connor Heyward from EV Insight

Connor HeywardReceiving Yards

Right now, Connor Heyward’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 21.5 (-115) after it opened @ 20.5 (-122).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Connor Heyward has been a much bigger part of his team’s pass attack this season (8.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (2.8%).
Connor Heyward has accumulated significantly more air yards this season (17.0 per game) than he did last season (6.0 per game).
This year, the weak Packers defense has been torched for the 9th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a staggering 7.75 yards.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week’s game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their typical game plan.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Steelers this year (a measly 54.5 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 9th-fewest in football.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.
Connor Heyward’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 81.3% to 67.5%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards