MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-105) after it opened @ 38.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 143.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalton Schultz to total 7.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the highest Completion% in football (74.6%) to tight ends this year (74.6%).
Cons
- The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Dalton Schultz has compiled many fewer receiving yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (51.0).
- Dalton Schultz’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.9% to 64.7%.
- Dalton Schultz’s receiving effectiveness has diminished this year, averaging a mere 6.72 yards-per-target vs a 8.45 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
