Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers, and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
SIC have a new feature – The Injury Edge – Your NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet.
It’s a tool for quickly seeing which teams have a health-based advantage each week using the proven SIC Health Score algorithm.
The SIC Health Score algorithm has seen teams with a 10+ health advantage win at over 58% Against The Spread over 4 NFL seasons!
FTN subscribers can get one free week of premium access to see all of The Injury Edge, plus all of the team and player health scores in SIC Data! Just go to sicscore.com/premium and select the weekly SIC Data subscription, then apply the promo code FTN.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-9)
Patriots
The Patriots pulled off one of the upsets of the week Sunday, defending their home turf against the Bills. They stayed in control for most of the game but nearly blew a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter. The Bills scored 15 unanswered points, giving New England the ball with less than two minutes remaining in regulation. Mac Jones drove the offense the length of the field, sealing the game with a one-yard touchdown pass to Mike Gesicki. Gesicki caught just two passes on the day but matched Hunter Henry in snaps for the first time this season. Although Henry was active, he wasn’t a full-time player, running a route on just 45% of Jones’s dropbacks. He‘s been limited in practice but should be healthier this week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is also trending in the right direction, returning to practice Wednesday. Kendrick Bourne has been the primary beneficiary of Smith-Schuster’s absence, leading the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards in back-to-back weeks.
Bourne averaged less than four receptions (3.6) and 45 receiving yards (43.6) in Weeks 1-4, barely surpassing double-digit PPR points (10.4). Without Smith-Schuster in his last two games, Bourne has scored 19.30 and 15.30 PPR points, averaging eight grabs on nine targets for 76 yards.
Even if Smith-Schuster is active in Week 8, Bourne should still be a viable flex option and will likely see a lot of volume in what projects to be a trailing game script. His best single-game performance came with Smith-Schuster in the lineup, recording six receptions on 11 targets for 64 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Week 1.
Dolphins
The Dolphins’ offense came crashing down to earth against the Eagles, failing to clear 20 points for the first time this year. After losing Isaiah Wynn in the first quarter, Tua Tagovailoa struggled behind an already thin offensive line, taking three sacks and posting a season-low in passing yards (213) and yards per attempt (6.8). Wynn was placed on the injured reserve list Tuesday, ruling him out for Week 8, and at least three more games. Tyreek Hill also popped on the injury report with a hip issue, logging back-to-back DNPs before getting back to practice Thursday. If Hill is out, Waddle immediately slots in as the WR1, without a lot of competition to take away targets. Since entering the league in 2021, Waddle’s fantasy production has been nearly identical with and without Hill, separated by less than a point. He averages two-plus more targets (+2.05) and receptions (+2) in games without Hill, but almost 10 fewer receiving yards (-9.85).
However, the date does not account for Waddle’s ultimate ceiling without Hill, who has not missed a game with Mike McDaniel as the head coach and play caller. Even after a down week, the Dolphins offense still ranks No. 1 in DVOA, leading the NFL in yards (462.3) and points (34.3) per game. It’s also worth noting that Waddle rotated in and out of the game in Week 7, dealing with a back injury. He’s already logged limited sessions in practice, unlikely to miss any time.
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Bengals
The Bengals are coming out of their bye on a two-game win streak, trending in the right direction after a rough 1-3 start. The break was much needed for Tee Higgins who missed Week 5 due a to rib injury, posting a sub-55% snap share in his last outing. With Higgins out or limited, Ja’Marr Chase has stepped up for Cincinnati, averaging over nine receptions (9.3), 115 receiving yards and a touchdown in his last three games.
His production takes a significant hit when Higgins sees a full complement of snaps, but much of that can be attributed to the early-season struggles of the offense.
49ers
After a perfect 4-0 start, the 49ers have lost two games in a row, falling out of the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The offense hasn’t looked the same without Deebo Samuel, who exited Week 6 with a hairline shoulder fracture and is unlikely to suit up before the bye.
Brock Purdy also appears likely to miss Week 8, diagnosed with a concussion.
That leaves Sam Darnold as the starter. He was acquired by the team this offseason and reunited with former Panthers interim head coach and current defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. He also gets to play alongside Christian McCaffrey who played eight games in Carolina with Darnold under center. McCaffrey has been dominant in fantasy no matter who is playing quarterback, but even better in games played with Darnold, averaging 126.7 scrimmage yards and 23.3 PPR points.
