NFL Splits Tool, Week 8: Big Games to Monitor

The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers, and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.

SIC have a new feature – The Injury Edge – Your NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet.

It’s a tool for quickly seeing which teams have a health-based advantage each week using the proven SIC Health Score algorithm.
The SIC Health Score algorithm has seen teams with a 10+ health advantage win at over 58% Against The Spread over 4 NFL seasons!
FTN subscribers can get one free week of premium access to see all of The Injury Edge, plus all of the team and player health scores in SIC Data! Just go to sicscore.com/premium and select the weekly SIC Data subscription, then apply the promo code FTN.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-9)

Patriots

The Patriots pulled off one of the upsets of the week Sunday, defending their home turf against the Bills. They stayed in control for most of the game but nearly blew a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter. The Bills scored 15 unanswered points, giving New England the ball with less than two minutes remaining in regulation. Mac Jones drove the offense the length of the field, sealing the game with a one-yard touchdown pass to Mike Gesicki. Gesicki caught just two passes on the day but matched Hunter Henry in snaps for the first time this season. Although Henry was active, he wasn’t a full-time player, running a route on just 45% of Jones’s dropbacks. He‘s been limited in practice but should be healthier this week.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is also trending in the right direction, returning to practice Wednesday. Kendrick Bourne has been the primary beneficiary of Smith-Schuster’s absence, leading the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards in back-to-back weeks.

Bourne averaged less than four receptions (3.6) and 45 receiving yards (43.6) in Weeks 1-4, barely surpassing double-digit PPR points (10.4). Without Smith-Schuster in his last two games, Bourne has scored 19.30 and 15.30 PPR points, averaging eight grabs on nine targets for 76 yards.