Team Profile
Houston Texans
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-8.3% 23rdOff DVOA
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4.1% 23rdPassing DVOA
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-12.9% 22ndRushing DVOA
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-17% 3rdDef DVOA
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-12.2% 3rdDef Passing DVOA
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-23.8% 2ndDef Rushing DVOA
2024 Team Stats
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Points For23.7 13th
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Points Against22.2 13th
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Yards Per Game335.0 17th
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Yards Allowed Per Game308.0 4th
The Jacksonville Jaguars present a great slump-busting chance for Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud, who is a fringe QB1 candidate in the Week 13 matchup. Last year's Offensive Rookie of the Year has been a fantasy disappointment relative to where he was drafted, throwing just 14 touchdowns and ranking behind the likes of Sam Darnold and Bo Nix. To the credit of the second-year quarterback, a poor pass-protecting offensive line that has allowed more yardage lost to sacks than anyone in the NFL certainly has been a major factor. The Jags, however, rank 32nd against fantasy quarterbacks, allow the fourth-most air yards, second-most yards after catch, and have the second-worst pressure percentage in the league. This week is a prime candidate for Stroud to turn things around.
Coming off a season-worst 22 rushing yards last week, Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon has an excellent chance for a get-right game against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13. The Jags rank 31st against fantasy running backs and have allowed more yards after the catch than everyone except New Orleans, giving a highly involved running back a great opportunity to rack up points. The former Cincinnati Bengal has been consistently productive in his first season in Houston, piling up six top-10 finishes among running backs in just nine games. Any fantasy manager rostering Mixon should have him glued into their Week 13 lineup.
Fantasy managers rostering Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins are dreaming of big-time points against a bad Jacksonville Jaguars defense in Week 13. The star receiver has a ready-made matchup against a defense that has allowed the second-most yards after the catch, fourth-most total yards, and third-most points against fantasy receivers. Houston has had pass protection issues, but Collins is still averaging 89 yards on nearly eight targets, and there's no reason to think Houston wants him to see less of the ball against one of the NFL's worst defenses. He should be a lineup lock this week.
Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell will take on one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL when Houston travels to Jacksonville in Week 13, but he remains an unpredictable WR3/Flex option in an up-and-down offense. He is averaging more than 10 yards per target in the two games since fellow receiver Nico Collins returned, but hauled in seven catches total across both contests, signaling he is likely to be a boom-or-bust option. Jacksonville ranks 29th in air yards allowed and 31st in yards after the catch, so there certainly is home-run potential for someone in the Texans' offense, but Dell's lack of volume comes with some risk.
At this stage of the season, fantasy managers rostering Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz in a one-tight end format would be hard-pressed to trust him, even in a great matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Houston still clearly values the veteran tight end, who is playing 80% of its snaps, but his decline in receiving production has made him a depreciating fantasy asset. In PPR formats, the former Dallas Cowboy has zero top-10 finishes among tight ends, and now rookie tight end Cade Stover has begun steadily earning more receiving work as well. The Jags rank 27th against fantasy tight ends and 31st for yards after the catch allowed, but managers should view Schultz as a touchdown-dependent TE2.